Oil industry will face wind of change..

AMONGST the numerous things that could stall Brunei's oil industry in the coming years — ageing workforce, access barriers, lack of technology — the one that seems most difficult are declining reserves & less convencing production achievement from new development wells.

The sultanate's dominant oil and gas production company, Brunei Shell Petroleum (BSP), which is also the second biggest employer in the country, has not been spared the phenomenon often referred to as the "big crew change".

"In 8 years time, over 1,000 or 45 per cent of BSP's local staff are due to retire, which in turn will create a massive brain drain at the company and affect all functions across the business…

Ignatius Stephen, in his article “Change the mind set before disaster strikes”, was trying to paint the picture of Brunei when oil runs out and I believe it’s not about oil price in its entirety

I am not going to go on about Brunei Oil background. There are more than 1000 Bruneians in a senior positions directly involve in Oil and Gas. Lots of them will be able to paint clear pictures of Brunei when oil runs out. But one thing for certain, Brunei only have so much acreage to explore and there are only so much to extract underneath – oil will one day runs dry in BRUNEI…..

Quote from Bruclass Forum:
Sure, sure. What's more terrifying it will NOT JUST be in Brunei but the world over where the supplies of oil are estimated to run out within the next three decades. If cheap & sustainable energy alternatives were not discovered and readily available by then, we’ll be experiencing the most ever terrifying moment in the history of mankind. Even the best economies of the world would not be able to sustain the hardship. Businesses will be going down fast. Doom will be looming.

I dont agree with your doomsday scenario in 30 years time. We have lots of alternative power sources that could replace oil and gas. The only reason why they are not being used is a simple case of economics. Oil and gas is still one of the most economical source of energy although this fact is changing fast.

Here are some alternatives energy sources.

1. Biodiesel - source from Palm Oil, etc.
2. Methane - source from decaying rubbish, etc.
3. Biofuel (ethanol) - source from corn, sugarcane, etc. Currently being used extensively in Brazil.
4. Solar power
5. Nuclear
6. Hydro
7. Geothermal
8. Windpower

I was just following the drift of the thread. Anyway, what I said was just a WHAT-IF scenario. I'm aware that lots of efforts have been made the world over to find alternative energy sources. In fact, Brunei is also starting to consider biofuel.

The BIG questions are:

1. Can these alternatives be produced cheaply & affordable, faster, safely, and in big & sustainable quantity?

2. Will they be readily available for all (i.e. rich and poor countries) within the next few decades?

I do hope the definite answer to both of these questions is YES. Otherwise, the risk of "doomsday" cannot be adequately avoided.

…as long as the ocean is there, "dooms day" is not applicable until we are faced with the oceans drying up.

sm, this does not meet your... if "1 and 2" is true logic, but it stand true that if one condition is true, there will be survivers thus eradicating "dooms day" scenario.

it now depends on the readiness of countries to tap into alternative resources.

you don't have to wait for the oceans to dry up to think about the adverse implications.

Okay, just imagine less worse scenario: higher oil prices. When the oil prices shoot up around US$70 recently businesses got the hit and affected their botton lines. Now, imagine in five years time when the supplies getting contracted and the oil prices to hike up up to US$150 to $200 per barrel. I don't think the world will be ready with alternative sources in 5 years time. So, what would happen? Major power crisis unprecedented in history!!!

In Brunei, our government may make some major policy changes with regards to oil subsidies. There might be no more subisidies which would impact the cost of petroleum and electricity. Imagine, you would have to pay $5.00 to $8.00 per litre of petrol for your car and your electricity bill runs up to $400 to $500 a month (where currently you only pay $50 to $100). And then, there will be lots of knock-on effects whereby businesses have to adjust their pricings and pass the costs to consumers. Life will never cheap again.

wow...

i believe there is oil price regulators that would not allow this to happen. that's a wee bit too pessimistic, i would say. now all the more urgent for brunei to tap into the ocean for electricity!!


i would be the first to cry if the petrol price went up. now all the more urgent for brunei to tap into the ocean for electricity!!

when Malaysian government cut its oil subsidies just a few cents last year, the whole country was in chaos. now, they did it again with tol hike...

on our home front, the Ministry of Energy has on several occasions giving some hints on the future of our take-for-granted energy/power subsidies and even HM the Sultan had mentioned it once in one of his recent titahs.

get yourself a boat...so to speak ha ha

we should diversify our economy.. this has been said over and over again

we should invest in alternative fuels

we should invest in factories and utilise our local people instead of letting unemployment hit the roof

we should utilise our land properly. 80% of brunei is still jungle! that's a lot of land which can be used for a lot of things, instead of building useless shop houses in already congested places. Now kiulap and gadong are merging because of this, and traffic is already very bad in these areas.

petrol prices should increase so people stop buying cars tey cannot afford and drive around not maintaining them... and we will use our petrol and resources wisely.

JPD needs to get ther act together instead of being so double standard in policing motorists and the JKR should take note of our roads ..

there's so many things we can say to improve.. but will it ever happen?

The obvious failure of our government to accelerate the diversification efforts and get results is another reason for us, commoners, to feel terrified. Almost three decades had past since Brunei got its independent but Brunei is STILL complacent, laid back, less serious and less committed. Another three decades would see Brunei struggling to survive IF things don’t improve and move very, very much.

Yes, we can only say and wish so much but who’s there to make it all happen? How confidence we are on the current and future decision-makers to make it all happen when the past indications are nothing significant to be proud of? Where and when shall we begin if we’re to change for the better? Just to think about the best probable answers to these questions could terrify us further.

God help us!

what are the real factors of the failure? to un-terrified us commoners, we may have to terrify the gomen servants. gone should be the time of guaranteed employment. corporatisation is key to getting rid of unwanted or unwarranted gomen employees.

des should be the next gomen depart to corporatised. prepaid meters should be introduced nationwide and not only on new premises. there is no excuse for continuing non payment of electricity bills.

obviously from a prepaid user here.

[highlight]Unless and until we are ALL subject to TRANSPARENT and JUST application of the Letter of the Law, the commoner will always have to be terrified of VICTIMISATION by those who ABUSE and MISUSE their power in their appointed offices.

Hint, hint...

when Malaysian government cut its oil subsidies just a few cents last year, the whole country was in chaos. ...

There were certainly some outcries when the Malaysian government cut its oil subsidies but there were never any chaos!!!

.... now all the more urgent for brunei to tap into the ocean for electricity!!

How do you propose that we tap into the ocean for electricity? You have some new technology that you can share with us?